Prediction: Who will win this year’s MMFF in the box office?

      The 39^th Metro Manila Film Festival will start tomorrow and as expected, big names will rule the box office charts. The competition this year was minimized when 2 big movies where pulled-out from the festival (Be Careful with My Heart & My Super Kap). This is a good sign for the smaller movies to have a bigger audience. But, bigger movies will still get the largert part of the audience left by the two movies.

Here is my prediction for the festival entries:

1.   Girl Boy Bakla Tomboy

Vice Ganda has been strong in the box office in the recent years (Petrang Kabayo, Praybeyt Benjamin (#3), TGIWUM (#5), and Sisterakas (#2) are all in the top grossing local films in the country). The movie is also expected to have a younger audience (25 below) that has a big percentage of the moviegoers even Pagpag and Little Bossings are targeting the same audience. Maricel Soriano, even of her previous controversies, can still help push older audience to the movie. With these, 300 million isn’t far behind.

Prediction: 300 million

2.   My Little Bossings

Enteng Kabisote and other franchises were not allowed in this festival. That’s not a problem. Vic Sotto and Kris Aquino’s name will help this movie.

But, can Vic Sotto still pull a big number? His last movie Si Agimat, Si Enteng Kabisote at si Ako with Bong Revilla and Judy Ann Santos made well but come in third place in last year’s festival. But, older audiences will still come to see Vic Sotto in the big screen.

On the other hand, Kris Aquino’s previous movies, Segunda Mano, Dalaw, Sisterakas have all grossed more than 100 million. Meanwhile, his son and Ryzza Mae Dizon are both debuting in the cinema. Ryzza has a hit talk show that both younger and older audience likes while this is the debut of Bimby in the showbiz. But, both have still to be tested if they can push the movie.

Thanks to a aggressive marketing campaign,(trailers are in different TV networks, advertisement from their own shows), the movie will pull a big number but not enough to be the top grosser.

Forecast: 160 million

3.   Pagpag: Siyam na Buhay

Daniel Padilla and Kathryn Bernardo are at the peak of their popularity right now. Their TV Series, Got To Believe, is currently the top TV series. Their previous movie, Must Be Love earned 60 million despite only showing for 2 weeks.

This movie is also expected to have a very big number of teens since they have the largest fanbase right now. The horror genre can also help for those who want to watch horror movies every MMFF (there is no SRR this year). So, more than 175 million wouldn't be surprising. But, let's go with a safe bet.

Forecast: 150 million  

4.   Kimmy Dora: Ang Kiyemeng Prequel

The previous two movies of this franchise have been solid. But, It will clash a bunch of comedy movies which it will lose.

Forecast: 120 million

5.   10,000 Hours

Local action genre has been rough in the recent years. Critically acclaimed, On the Job bombed at the local box office. Robin Padilla isn’t that popular in the younger audience right now. The screenings will be limited also for the movie. If it can deal with its problems, it will gross fine. But, it’s too hard to fix it.

Forecast: 50 million

6.   Pedro Calungsod: Batang Martir

Last year’s best picture One More Try doubles it’s earnings after it received the award. But that’s not like Pedro Calungsod. OMT is a romantic drama which is popular in the country and while Pedro Calungsod is a pure drama, it will be hard to find its audience

Forecast: 40 million

7.   Boy Golden

Manila Kingpin and El Presidente both struggled in the box office and this movie will follow them.

Prediction: 30 million

8.   Kaleidoscope World

There are many movies which targets the same demographic of Kaleidoscope World and considering the limited screenings of smaller movies, Kaleidoscope can still  earn but not much.

Prediction: 25 million